CNN projects Republican Matt Van Epps as winner of Tennessee special election, preventing Democratic upset

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps is projected to win the special election for Tennessees 7th Congressional District, according to CNNs Decision Desk. His victory prevents a major upset but highlights growing Democratic momentum in a district that usually leans heavily Republican.

Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn, allowing the GOP to maintain the seat formerly held by Mark Green, who resigned in July to pursue a private-sector role. Leading up to the election, Republicans feared a loss in a district President Donald Trump carried by 22 points just over a year ago.

While Democrats recently celebrated victories in Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, a Tennessee flip would have represented an even more significant surprise. Behn and other Democrats argued that even a close loss would demonstrate momentum for their partys focus on cost-of-living issues. Van Epps margin of victory was narrower than those achieved by Trump and Green in 2024.

At her election night rally, Behn stated, "Tonight is not the final result of what we wanted, but it is the beginning of something powerful in Tennessee and across the South." Prior to the results being called, she told CNN, "This shows Democrats can compete in high-turnout elections. Turnout is very high for a special election." She added that the outcome foreshadows competitive races in the upcoming midterms.

Turnout for the special election rivaled 2022 midterms and reached more than half of 2024 levels, remarkable given it was held the Tuesday after Thanksgiving. This may explain why Democratic over-performance was below the 16-point average of other special elections this year. Still, Behn improved Democratic margins from 2024 by double digits.

The Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC emphasized that the relatively close results should be a warning for Republicans. Spokesperson CJ Warnke said, "No House Republicans reelection should be considered safe next November."

Matt Van Epps, a former Army helicopter pilot and ex-commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, won the Republican primary in October with endorsements from Trump and Governor Bill Lee. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned for him in the final days, and Trump participated in a tele-rally expressing strong support.

In his victory speech, Van Epps credited his close ties to Trump, saying "Running with Trump is how you win. President Trumps support made the difference. In Congress, Ill be all-in with him." He also emphasized cost-of-living issues as a priority, aiming to reduce prices and increase wages for Tennessee families.

Aftyn Behn, a Democratic state representative first elected in 2023, rejected Trumps labeling of her as a radical left candidate, clarifying that her comments about Nashvilles tourism industry were intended to address local residents concerns rather than oppose cultural norms.

Democratic leaders, including former Vice President Al Gore and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, participated in a tele-rally supporting Behn. Gore remarked on the rapid political shifts observed in this election.

Following Van Epps projected win, the House GOP majority will increase to 220-213. The margin will tighten further when Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene resigns in January. Democrats are favored to capture two additional seats in early 2026 special elections in Texas and New Jersey.

Republican strategist David Urban downplayed concerns about Democratic momentum, noting the off-year nature of the special election and emphasizing the significance of the Republican victory.

Author: Sophia Brooks