Is Trump's proposal sufficiently unattractive to bring an end to the war?

Steve Witkoff, acting as Donald Trumps special envoy to Russia, has made multiple visits to the Kremlin, where he has been greeted warmly. Over the course of five trips, he has worked to build rapport with Russian officials, including coaching Vladimir Putins foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, on engaging effectively with the US president, according to a leaked transcript.

Previously, Witkoff expressed admiration for Putin and delivered gifts, including a flattering portrait to Trump and a medal to a CIA family whose son died in combat against Moscow forces. On his next visit, he is expected to present a promise from Washington to recognize Russias control over Ukrainian territories taken by force. While Kyiv and Europe would reject such recognition, endorsement from the US could legitimize Russias illegal occupation, enabling trade from seized ports and extraction of resources from Ukrainian mines.

This proposal represents a significant challenge to Ukraine and international norms, though it is unlikely to be enough to end the conflict. Witkoff is executing Trumps directives in a manner that has drawn scrutiny and controversy.

Inside the Kremlin, discussions are anticipated to focus on the Donbas region. Putin reiterated that the war would continue until Ukraine relinquishes control of roughly 20% of Donetsk. The original 28-point peace framework, developed with Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev, required Ukraine to surrender these areas, though the demand was moderated after talks with a Ukrainian delegation in Geneva. The final outcome will depend on negotiations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Witkoff, accompanied by Jared Kushner, may hint that US recognition could extend to this territory if a broader agreement is reached. This would allow Putin to pursue territorial claims with Washingtons support, possibly offering minor territorial returns to Ukraine in exchange. Yet, unless Russias broader territorial ambitions are met, Moscow has little incentive to halt hostilities.

European intervention during Geneva negotiations helped Ukraine soften the initial 28-point plan, but neither Brussels nor Kyiv can compel Moscow to adopt their vision for peace. European diplomats have struggled to secure a $161 billion loan for Ukraine, backed by frozen Russian assets, leaving a large funding gap for the countrys reconstruction over the next four years.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces face intense pressure on the front lines, with Russian troops advancing into Zaporizhzhia and aiming to capture Pokrovsk. Kyivs manpower disadvantage is worsened by increasing rates of absence among soldiers. Intelligence assessments indicate Putin is willing to continue the war despite high costs, using leverage to extract concessions or risk further losses to achieve his objectives.

Ultimately, Witkoffs diplomatic efforts may not yield the breakthrough Moscow desires. Ukrainian leadership has signaled that it would reject territorial concessions in Donbas, even at the cost of US relations. For Witkoff, the visits may amount to little more than formalities, marked by smiles rather than tangible results.

Author: Sophia Brooks