Opinion: The One Number That Should Make Trump Fearful Right Now

One of the most common questions I receive is: When will Republican elected officials start challenging Donald Trump? My usual response has been that it will only happen once Republican voters begin to turn away from him. Recent data suggests that moment may be approaching.

A new Gallup poll released over the weekend shows President Trumps approval rating at just 36%, the lowest point recorded by Gallup during his second term and close to the historic low of 34% measured after January 6, 2021.

However, the more significant detail is how approval breaks down by party affiliation. Last month, Trump had 91% approval among Republican voters. In the latest poll, that number has dropped to 84%.

While this decline doesnt signal an immediate crisisTrumps approval remaining in the mid-80s means most GOP officials are unlikely to publicly break with himthe trend is concerning. A seven-point drop in support among core Republican voters in just a month highlights potential fatigue within the party base.

Historically, one of Trumps key advantages has been his strong hold over Republican voters. Any sign of weakening in that grip opens the door for the possibility that a meaningful portion of the base may be reconsidering their loyalty.

Currently, party leaders are unlikely to split from a president still favored by nearly 9 in 10 base voters. But if approval drops to around 80% or lower, public dissent among GOP officials could become much more plausible.

Its important to remember that this is a single poll, though Gallup is widely respected for its reliability over time. Base support could rebound in the coming weeks. Still, tracking Republican approval remains a crucial indicator of when the party might begin moving beyond Trump.

Author: Sophia Brooks