Republican emerges victorious in closely watched Tennessee special election

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps is set to win against Democrat Aftyn Behn in Tennessees 7th Congressional District special election, according to Decision Desk HQ. The contest was widely watched as an indicator of Democratic voter energy leading into 2026.

Van Epps, who previously served as commissioner of the Tennessee Department of General Services, secured victory over Behn, a current state representative, to fill the seat vacated by former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), who stepped down earlier this year to pursue private sector work.

Although the district, which supported both President Trump and Green by more than 20 points in 2024, was expected to remain Republican, Democrats entered the race with optimism after a stronger-than-expected performance in last months elections. Some recent polls indicated a close race, with Emerson College Polling and The Hill placing Van Epps just 2 points ahead of Behn.

Ultimately, Van Epps is projected to win by single digits, a narrow margin that Democrats have framed as a partial success. The competitive nature of the race attracted significant outside spending from both parties. Decision Desk HQs chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley highlighted that while Republicans had an edge in external funding, Behn outpaced Van Epps in fundraising between October 1 and November 12.

Prominent figures from both sides participated in the campaign, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, leaders of the national parties, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), and President Trump, who joined a Van Epps rally by phone the day before the election.

Democrats relied heavily on turnout in Davidson County, home to Nashville, to keep the race competitive. Early voting data showed the county accounted for roughly a quarter of early votes, emphasizing the challenge for Democrats, who needed at least 50 percent of their support from this area.

Despite the defeat, the Democratic Party sees reasons for optimism heading into next year, including recent strong performances in Virginia and New Jersey, and a dip in Trumps approval rating to 42 percent. Democrats have also achieved some gains in redistricting efforts nationwide.

Republicans, meanwhile, remain encouraged. Even with a challenging midterm environment approaching, the GOP anticipates opportunities in states where they can influence redistricting. A potential Supreme Court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act could allow multiple southern states to redraw their maps ahead of 2026.

Author: Sophia Brooks