Tennessee special election may predict 2026 midterms

On December 2, voters in central Tennessee are casting their ballots in a special election that may offer insight into the future balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives ahead of next year's midterm elections. Residents of the 7th Congressional District, located just west of Nashville, are choosing between Republican Matt Van Epps, a former state Department of General Services Commissioner, and Democrat state Representative Aftyn Behn.

The election was triggered by the resignation of Republican Congressman Mark Green, first elected in 2018. In the 2024 presidential race, 60% of the district's voters supported Donald Trump's re-election. While the 7th District has traditionally favored Republicans, the 2020 redistricting made it slightly less rural, potentially giving Democrats a stronger opportunity to challenge Republican dominance in the House.

Former Vice President Al Gore, who previously represented Tennessee in the Senate, remarked on the changing political landscape in the district during a virtual rally supporting Behn. He stated, "Having had the privilege of representing Tennessee in years past, I want to tell you that I have never seen the political tides shift as far and as fast as we're seeing them move in this election," according to CNN.

Behn, 36, won a special election in 2023 to represent the 51st District in Davidson County following the passing of Rep. Bill Beck, and she was re-elected in 2024. Before joining the legislature, she advocated for affordable living, Medicaid expansion, and preventing hospital closures in rural communities, USA Today noted.

Van Epps, 42, endorsed by Trump, had limited political experience before receiving support from a billionaire-backed super PAC. A combat veteran, he served a decade in the U.S. Army with deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq. According to NPR, the special election has attracted over $6.5 million in funding, including approximately $1.6 million from the pro-Trump super PAC.

Author: Sophia Brooks