Tennessee special election may reduce GOP House majority

Residents of Tennessee's 7th Congressional District are casting their ballots today to fill the vacancy left by former Republican Rep. Mark Green. In the 2024 election, both Green and President Donald Trump won this district by over 20 points. However, a recent Emerson College poll indicates Republican Matt Van Epps holds a narrow lead over Democrat Aftyn Behn, 48% to 46%, with 5% of voters still undecided.

Despite Van Epps being considered the frontrunner in what is traditionally a Republican stronghold, both parties are treating the race as unusually close.

Impact on House Control

A Democratic victory in Tennessee could tighten the GOPs slim House majority. If Democrats also win upcoming special elections in two Democratic-leaning districts in Texas and New Jersey, the balance could shift to 218 Republicans and 216 Democrats, leaving little margin for party-line defections. The planned resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on January 5 would further complicate the numbers.

District Makeup

The current TN-07 district lines, drawn by Republicans in 2022, split Democratic-leaning Nashville into three districts. TN-07 now includes parts of North and West Nashville, suburban Williamson County, and a long stretch of rural counties down to the Alabama border, creating a mix of urban, suburban, and rural voters.

Candidates and Campaign Platforms

Aftyn Behn, a state representative and experienced organizer, is campaigning on lowering family expenses. Her platform includes repealing the states 4% grocery tax and improving essential services, summed up by her slogan: "Feed kids, fix roads and fund hospitals."

Matt Van Epps, a combat veteran and West Point graduate who served as Tennessees Department of General Services commissioner, focuses on economic growth and border security. He aligns with Trumps "America First" agenda and pledges to fight rising living costs alongside the president and House leadership.

Independent candidates include Teresa "Terri" Christie, Bobby Dodge, Robert James Sutherby, and Jon Thorp.

Campaign Tactics and Controversies

Republicans argue Behn is too far left for the district, citing past statements where she called herself very radical, supported defunding police, and criticized Nashville. Behn says these comments were made before her legislative service and emphasizes her focus on affordable healthcare and groceries as practical, not extreme.

Both parties have spent heavily on advertising: more than $5 million since the primary, with Republican-aligned groups contributing over $3 million and Democratic allies at least $2 million. Behn has reportedly outraised Van Epps nearly two-to-one.

National Attention

High-profile figures are campaigning for both sides. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have supported Van Epps, while Democrats have enlisted former Vice President Al Gore, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and others to back Behn through events and virtual appearances.

Voter Trends

Early voters lean toward Behn, with 56% support versus 42% for Van Epps. In contrast, voters planning to cast ballots today favor Van Epps 51% to 39%. Young voters show strong support for Behn, while older voters and men lean toward Van Epps. Women tend to support Behn.

Significance

Given TN-07s historically Republican lean, even a narrow Democratic loss would indicate potential challenges for the GOP heading into the 2026 midterms. A Democratic upset would reduce the Republican majority in the House and represent a significant setback.

Author: Sophia Brooks