After a string of painful defeats in November, Republicans seeking a political comeback are deeply divided over how to approach the next major electoral battle: a statewide judicial contest in swing-state Wisconsin. Voters will return to the polls in April to choose a new state Supreme Court justice the fourth such race since 2020. In the previous three, liberal contenders overwhelmingly beat conservative-backed opponents, erasing what had been a right-leaning majority on the bench as recently as 2023.
GOP figures are now clashing over how to halt this losing streak. Some argue the party must fully lean into its identity including its ties to Donald Trump while others believe the only path forward is distancing the race from partisan politics and reviving a more traditional, less divisive approach to judicial elections.
If you dont make clear who you are, voters lose motivation, said Brandon Scholz, former executive director of the Wisconsin Republican Party. He warned that liberals will mobilize every anti-Trump voter they can find in the state.
Though the contests are officially nonpartisan, both parties have funneled tens of millions of dollars into them due to high-stakes cases expected before the court. Liberal justices voted last summer to strike down Wisconsins 176-year-old abortion ban. Earlier, the court upheld Democratic Gov. Tony Evers use of a line-item veto to secure a 400-year school funding increase. Democrats are also hoping the court will take up a redistricting challenge ahead of the 2026 cycle.
Conservative candidate Maria Lazar said the surest path to winning back the seat is to shift the conversation away from ideological extremes. This isnt Republican versus Democrat, said Lazar, a veteran judge who has served on an appellate court in Waukesha for the past three years. This is a judicial race, and I am a judge through and through not a politician.
But prominent GOP strategists doubt that approach will work. Scholz noted that vague appeals to judicial philosophy no longer resonate with voters. Republicans are also grappling with the challenges of spring elections, where turnout often favors left-leaning voters who are highly engaged and accustomed to showing up even as general elections in November remain tightly contested.
There isnt some big, persuadable middle, said Republican strategist Alec Zimmerman, who served as communications director for Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022. This is a low-turnout race, and whoever motivates their base better is going to win.
The filing deadline isnt until January, but so far only Lazar and Chris Taylor a former Democratic lawmaker appointed to a lower court by Evers in 2020 have officially entered the race. While the state GOP hasnt formally endorsed Lazar, spokesperson Anika Rickard indicated party approval, calling Lazars approach the right one.
Lazar said she remains mindful of the disastrous 2025 race in which conservative Brad Schimel lost to liberal Susan Crawford by around 10 points despite more than $90 million in spending. Schimel amplified his MAGA credentials, earning Trumps endorsement and even dressing as the former president for Halloween. Last year showed just how bad things have gotten, Lazar said. She added that after all the spending, most voters still couldnt explain the actual qualifications of either candidate.
Still, Republican strategists warn that shedding partisan labels wont be enough to attract new support and reflects deeper challenges within the state GOP particularly its struggle to energize Trumps base when Trump himself isnt on the ballot. Voters arent convinced by the idea that putting on a black robe makes someone magically neutral, said longtime Republican aide Ben Voelkel. Lawyers might appreciate that, but the average voter doesnt.
Nathan Conrad, a spokesperson for Lazars campaign, pointed to detailed position papers published on her website and said the campaign is actively communicating through traditional and social media. Were speaking directly to the issues, he said. These critiques sound like recycled talking points from losing campaigns. We intend to engage every voter and make Marias positions clear.
Unlike the last two Supreme Court races which determined the courts ideological majority this years contest wont shift control unless unexpected vacancies arise. Liberals will retain the majority until at least 2028. However, Democrats believe their voters still understand the stakes after a series of favorable rulings.
You dont reach double-digit margins without winning people in the middle even some who lean conservative, said Devin Remiker, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Here in Wisconsin, we know better than most how crucial every single election is, especially when it comes to the Supreme Court.
