Opinion - Critical US hardware still needed for German rearmament

Europe is increasingly recognizing the need to strengthen its military forces amid the ongoing Russian threat. Governments across the continent are stepping up defense spending to modernize armies, navies, and air forces, understanding that preparedness is the best deterrent against conflict. As the United States reduces its direct security commitments in Europe, attention turns to Germany, the continents largest economy with 83.5 million citizens.

Since the end of the Cold War, Germany has consistently underfunded its military, prioritizing domestic issues and reunification over defense. NATO set a defense spending goal of 2 percent of GDP in 2004, formally adopted in 2006 and reaffirmed in 2014. Despite Germanys economic strength, it only reached this target last year.

The Bundeswehr faces significant challenges due to decades of underinvestment. Land forces operate at roughly 50 percent readiness, while maintenance backlogs run into billions of euros. The Luftwaffe has struggled to maintain operational aircraft, and the overall force size must grow from 182,000 to 260,000 within a decade.

Recognizing these gaps, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz created a 100 billion off-budget fund for military equipment following Russias 2022 invasion of Ukraine. His successor, Friedrich Merz, later amended Germanys Basic Law to exempt defense spending from the national debt brake. The government has since increased the military budget from 86 billion in 2025 to 108.2 billion in 2026, aiming to allocate 3.5 percent of GDP to core defense and 1.5 percent to broader security. Additional borrowing of up to 400 billion over five years will support rearmament efforts.

Germanys procurement plan, totaling 377 billion, includes both immediate acquisitions and long-term projects. A significant portion, 182 billion, is designated for domestic defense firms. Rheinmetall AG will receive 88 billion for vehicles and anti-aircraft systems, while Diehl Defence is expected to supply 17.3 billion in missiles and launchers. U.S. companies are expected to provide roughly 10 percent of the new equipment, indicating a shift toward European self-reliance.

However, the 10 percent from the U.S. includes critical systems. Germany plans to purchase 15 F-35A aircraft capable of deploying B61 Mod 12 nuclear bombs, enhancing NATOs nuclear capabilities. The Future Combat Air System, a joint program with France and Spain, faces internal disagreements and potential cancellation, which may increase Germanys dependence on the F-35.

The Bundeswehr will also acquire 400 Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles and three Lockheed Martin Typhon launchers, with additional Boeing P-8A Poseidon aircraft under consideration. These capabilities are central to Germanys long-range strike, nuclear, ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance), and missile defense capacities, all areas where U.S. technology remains crucial.

While European nations aim to reduce reliance on the U.S. and foster their own defense industries, critical dependence persists. Germanys plans illustrate the complex balance between increasing self-sufficiency and maintaining access to indispensable American systems.

Analysis: Germany’s Defense Shift and Its Implications

Germany’s accelerated defense spending marks a historic shift from decades of underinvestment. The recent increase to €108.2 billion in 2026, along with the off-budget €100 billion fund, demonstrates a clear recognition that the Bundeswehr must close readiness and capability gaps to respond to current threats.

Despite these investments, significant challenges remain. Land forces still operate at roughly 50 percent readiness, and critical programs such as the Future Combat Air System face internal disagreements that could increase reliance on U.S. platforms like the F-35. This highlights the difficulty of achieving full European defense autonomy while maintaining access to advanced American technology.

Germany’s procurement plan emphasizes boosting domestic defense production, allocating €182 billion to local firms such as Rheinmetall AG and Diehl Defence. Yet, the reliance on U.S. systems for nuclear-capable aircraft, cruise missiles, and ISR capabilities underscores the ongoing transatlantic interdependence.

In conclusion, Germany’s reforms reflect both a strategic commitment to NATO and a pragmatic approach to self-reliance. The country aims to modernize its forces rapidly, but complete independence from U.S. defense technology remains unlikely in the near term.

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• Opinion - German rearmament still needs critical US hardware