5 key points from Tennessee's closely contested special election

Republican candidate Matt Van Epps secured a win in Tuesdays special election in Tennessee, a race closely watched as an early indicator for next years midterm elections. Van Epps defeated Democratic state Representative Aftyn Behn for a Nashville-area congressional seat that President Trump carried by over 20 points in 2024. Preliminary results showed Van Epps winning by roughly 9 points, prompting concern among some Republicans about the unexpectedly close contest, while Democrats viewed Behns strong showing as a reason for optimism.

Key Takeaways from the Election

• Republicans felt relief after the election proved more competitive than anticipated. Losing the 7th district would have reduced the GOPs already narrow House majority and been a political setback for both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, who are under scrutiny within their party.
• The race followed surprising Democratic performances in recent elections in New Jersey and Virginia, adding to GOP worries about the midterms.
• Although the district leaned Republican, recent polling indicated a tight race. In response, Trump and Johnson actively campaigned for Van Epps in the final days.
• Trump celebrated the victory, posting congratulations to Van Epps on social media, noting the significant support he overcame from Democratic spending.
• Some Republicans, however, expressed caution. Former Senate GOP campaign adviser Matt Whitlock highlighted Van Eppss narrower-than-expected margin as a warning for potential nationwide shifts that could favor Democrats.

Democratic Perspective

While Democrats did not flip the seat, Behns performance exceeded expectations by roughly 13 points compared to 2024. This marked another example of the partys strong showings in special elections this year. Her results in Davidson County, which includes Nashville, outpaced former Vice President Harris by 20 points, suggesting energized Democratic turnout ahead of next years elections.

Early returns favored Behn, reflecting Democrats continued strength in early voting. Republicans closed the gap on Election Day itself, demonstrating the difficulty of predicting outcomes solely from early ballots. Turnout was notably high for an off-year special election, with approximately 180,000 votes castnearly matching the 2022 midterm numbers for the district.

Election Strategies and Implications

Democrats attempted to support an independent candidate, Jonathan Thorp, to divert votes from Van Epps, but he only received half a percent of the total vote, showing limited impact. This tactic has been used in past cycles and may be revisited next year.

The Tennessee race is considered the last major election of the year, with smaller special elections still upcoming. Both parties are now focusing on the midterms, where Republicans defend narrow House and Senate majorities, while Democrats enter 2026 with momentum from recent strong performances and redistricting successes.

Republicans also anticipate opportunities from potential map changes in states like Indiana, Florida, and Texas, depending on Supreme Court decisions, as well as possible modifications to the Voting Rights Act that could influence redistricting nationwide.

Author: Sophia Brooks