National Redistricting Expert Declares Democrats' Victory in Gerrymandering Battle is Undeniable: 'No Question'

As the 2026 midterm elections and the 2028 presidential race approach, Democrats appear to be leading in the gerrymandering arena. Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting authority and assistant professor at Carnegie Mellon University, confirmed this perspective during an interview on Dan Abrams SiriusXM show.

When asked who benefits most from current gerrymandering strategies, Cervas replied, If the districts remain unchanged, Democrats have unquestionably won this struggle.

Discussion then turned to Texas, where a federal judge blocked the states attempt to implement new congressional maps, citing strong evidence of racial gerrymandering. As a result, Texas must stick with its 2021 district boundaries, which Cervas noted prevents Republicans from gaining additional seats.

California presents a contrasting situation. After voters approved Proposition 50, the Democratic-led legislature now has the authority to redraw congressional districts. Cervas highlighted that this new map, unchallenged in court, could deliver roughly five more Democratic seats. While Missouri and some other states may see minor Republican gains, they are expected to be limited compared to the advantages in California and other Democratic-leaning states.

Even in Utah, where a recent congressional map was rejected, the state will adopt a district arrangement that slightly favors Democrats. Cervas emphasized that, while Democrats are currently ahead, the process is not entirely settled, and changes in other states could alter outcomes.

He also cited data showing that if the new maps in California and Texas had been used in past elections over the last 11 years, Democrats in California would have consistently gained seats, while Republicans in Texas would have done the same. This means that even in elections where one party underperforms compared to previous cycles, they still make net gains, Cervas explained.

Author: Sophia Brooks