'Tennessee's tight special election sends warning signs for Republicans in midterms'

Republicans secured a victory in Tuesdays special election in Tennessee, yet party members are bracing for challenges ahead. Rep.-elect Matt Van Epps won by roughly nine points, signaling a sharp swing toward Democrats compared to 2024, when former President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 points. Party strategists view this double-digit shift, following recent off-year election losses, as a potential warning for next years midterms, where Republicans aim to maintain their slim House majority.

Tonight shows 2026 could be a tough election cycle, a House Republican, speaking anonymously, commented. Republicans can survive if teamwork is strong and Trump administration officials make smart moves. Neither is guaranteed.

Democrat Aftyn Behn outperformed expectations in the Tennessee race, which drew millions in spending and national attention. This trend echoes other recent special elections where Democrats overperformed in traditionally red districts and swept key off-year contests, including gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.

Some Republicans are urging the party to adjust messaging to appeal to moderates and independents who backed Trump in 2024. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), retiring from a swing district, emphasized the importance of reaching these voters. We must engage swing voters. Americans want stability, he said.

House Republican leadership had anticipated a close contest. Despite extensive efforts, including a Trump tele-rally and a visit from Speaker Mike Johnson, the narrow victory margin was concerning. It was too close, said a GOP leadership aide, speaking anonymously.

Trump expressed confidence on Truth Social, celebrating Van Epps win, though GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett warned that the single-digit margin reflects ongoing Democratic momentum and could signal trouble for Republicans in the midterms. Bartlett criticized ignoring key voter concerns, calling it not a winning strategy.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) linked Van Epps underperformance to Democratic voters energized by anti-Trump sentiment, emphasizing the need to alert Republican voters about the stakes of losing House and Senate control. Hate is a powerful motivator, Cruz remarked.

Voter turnout was exceptionally high for a special election, surpassing 2022 midterm numbers for Democrats while Republican turnout lagged slightly. One GOP consultant noted that the Trump coalitions focus on his personality could limit enthusiasm for other Republican candidates in future federal races.

Van Epps acknowledged Trumps influence, stating, Running from Trump is how you lose. Running with Trump is how you win. Meanwhile, National Republican Congressional Committee chair Richard Hudson described special elections as unique but praised Van Epps potential to deliver results for Tennessee.

Despite the win, some House Republicans worry that a narrow margin could create tension within the party, signaling challenges for 2026.

Contributors: Elena Schneider, Lisa Kashinsky

Author: Sophia Brooks