Republicans manage to hold on in Tennessee Special Election

Republican combat veteran Matt Van Epps narrowly secured a House seat in Tennessee, defeating Democrat Aftyn Behn in a special election. The result signals challenges for the GOP ahead of next years midterms and a setback for Democrats who invested heavily in the race.

Van Epps, a former military serviceman, overcame Behn, a liberal activist turned state legislator, in a contest that drew national attention. This district, won by President Donald Trump by 22 points in 2024, proved far more competitive this year, highlighting shifts in voter sentiment amid economic concerns and declining Trump popularity.

Impact on GOP and House Majority

The victory provides modest relief for House Speaker Mike Johnson and the narrow Republican House majority, which will stand at 220-213 once Van Epps is sworn in. Upcoming retirements, including that of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, may reduce the margin to 219-215 early next year.

Voter Turnout and Democratic Strategy

Turnout for the special election was unusually high for a post-Thanksgiving contest, approaching levels typical of midterms, which neutralized the usual Democratic advantage among frequent voters. Despite the loss, Democrats hailed the effort as a moral victory. Ken Martin, DNC Chair, remarked that the GOPs heavy spending to protect the district still left them vulnerable, signaling momentum for Democrats in future races.

Campaign Dynamics

Van Epps, endorsed by Trump, was perceived as a competent and scandal-free candidate. Democratic groups, including a PAC affiliated with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, targeted him for supporting the controversial GOP budget and opposing the release of the Epstein files. Ads criticized him for seeking cuts to health care, imposing tariffs, and offering tax breaks for the wealthy.

Outside spending totaled approximately $3.1 million from Republican groups and $2.3 million from Democrats, a smaller scale compared to previous high-profile special elections, reflecting the challenge Democrats faced in positioning Behn as a strong contender. Behns outspoken liberal activism provided material for GOP attacks, including social media remarks and criticism of Tennessees history.

National Political Figures Involvement

The race drew attention from prominent politicians. Former Vice President Kamala Harris appeared at an event supporting Behn, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez led her closing tele-rally. Trump and Johnson campaigned for Van Epps, though Trump did not hold a public rally in the district. Trump emphasized the national focus on Tennessee, stating the world was watching the outcome.

The seat became vacant following the sudden retirement of Rep. Mark Green. Republicans are expected to remain strong contenders in the district for the 2026 general election.

Author: Sophia Brooks