US Republicans worry about uncertain election in their traditional stronghold

What was once seen as a routine Republican hold in Tennessee's 7th District has unexpectedly become a measure of President Donald Trump's sway, signaling potential trouble for a party clinging to a slim congressional majority. Although Trump is not on the ballot for this special House election, his influence is unmistakable in a district he won by 22 points in 2024.

Republicans are now in a scramble to prevent a humiliating result in a race previously considered secure. Recent polls indicate the contest is much closer than expected, sparking concerns that even a narrow Republican victoryor a Democratic upsetcould shake Washington and heighten fears of losing the House in 2026. With just a two-seat margin, party leaders warn that low turnout could have serious consequences. Tennessee Congressman Tim Burchett emphasized, "We're literally three people away from losing the majority. You can have a bad case of the flu go through Congress, and we'd be out of the majority. That's how important this election is."

The urgency follows a series of Democratic successes, including wins in Virginia and New Jersey and the New York mayoral race, seen as setbacks for Trumps return to prominence. Both the White House and Trump himself have taken note. On Monday night, Trump joined a tele-rally with House Speaker Mike Johnson, who spent the day campaigning alongside Republican candidate Matt Van Epps.

Van Epps, a West Point graduate and retired special-operations helicopter pilot, is running as a staunch Trump supporter, emphasizing law-and-order, border security, and tax reduction. His Democratic opponent, state representative Aftyn Behn, a former social worker, has promoted progressive policies on grocery-tax relief, rural healthcare, abortion access, and marijuana reform. Republicans have targeted Behns past social-media posts from 2020 racial-justice protests, in which she amplified "defund the police" messages and appeared to justify the burning of a police station. Trump weighed in on Monday, urging voters to reject her, saying, "Number one, she hates Christianity. Number two, she hates country music. How the hell can you elect a person like that?"

The district, spanning from Nashville's Music Row through affluent suburbs to conservative rural areas, typically awards Republicans about 60 percent of the vote. However, a recent Emerson College/The Hill poll shows Van Epps at 48 percent against Behn's 46 percent, within the margin of error. Earlier October polls had Van Epps ahead by up to eight points but noted high Democratic enthusiasm.

Republican strategists now expect Van Epps to win by five points, a sharp decline from Mark Greens 2024 landslide, while acknowledging that a tighter result would be alarming. Even an unlikely loss could energize Democrats and force a reevaluation of Republican strategies for 2026. Early voting trends favor Behn due to younger and urban voter engagement, while election-day turnout in rural areas is expected to favor Republicans.

Both parties have heavily invested in the race, with Trump-aligned groups spending roughly $2.4 million for Van Epps and Democratic groups contributing around $1.9 million for Behn, according to local reports.

Author: Sophia Brooks