Syrian leader must now earn trust from his own country after victories overseas

One year after toppling Bashar al-Assad, Ahmed al-Sharaa has managed to restore Syria's standing on the world stage and achieve relief from international sanctions. Yet experts caution that the former jihadist must still earn the confidence of Syrians at home.

Recent sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze regions, combined with ongoing Israeli military activity, has shaken the country as President Sharaa attempts to guide Syria out of 14 years of conflict.

"Syria has entered a new phase that many once considered impossible," stated Nanar Hawach, senior Syria analyst at the International Crisis Group, noting renewed diplomatic ties and foreign investments. "But global recognition is meaningless if Syrians do not feel secure in their daily lives."

US President Donald Trump has shown particular favor toward the 43-year-old leader, marking a remarkable political rise for a former jihadist who once faced a US bounty for Al-Qaeda connections. Since the Islamist coalition ousted Assad on December 8 last year, Sharaa has visited capitals across the Gulf, Europe, and Washington, ending decades of Assad family rule.

Washington and the UN Security Council have removed him from their terrorism and sanctions lists, and the UN dispatched a delegation to Damascus for the first time in years. Major sanctions by the United States, the European Union, and Britain have been lifted, and Syria has announced new investment deals in infrastructure, transport, and energy. Sharaa has also visited Russia, whose forces had opposed him during the war and where Assad remains in exile.

"Sharaa has gained victories abroad, but the true test lies within the country," Hawach emphasized.

Domestic Challenges

Critics argue that Syria's interim constitution fails to reflect the nations ethnic and religious diversity, consolidating power in a president appointed for a five-year transitional period. Armed groups, including former Islamist and jihadist fighters, have been disbanded, though many were integrated into the restructured military and security forces, including some foreign fighters. Some government-affiliated forces have been linked to sectarian violence.

Massacres in Alawite regions in March killed over 1,700 people, while clashes in July in the Druze-majority Sweida province left more than 2,000 dead, including hundreds of civilians. Authorities have launched investigations and prosecuted some perpetrators.

Nicholas Heras of the New Lines Institute noted that Sharaa "has twice failed as a leader of national reconciliation" during these violent episodes. Questions remain about his commitment to controlling the militias that were instrumental in bringing him to power. His leadership remains fragile, as he lacks a fully unified security apparatus capable of enforcing government rules.

Gamal Mansour, a researcher at the University of Toronto, described the appointment of factional leaders with warlord backgrounds as contributing to a "crisis of trust" among minority communities. Still, many Syrians view Sharaa as the only figure capable of maintaining stability, fearing the consequences of a power vacuum.

Keeping the nation intact is a complex task, with some coastal and Sweida factions calling for succession, and Kurdish groups pushing for decentralization, which Damascus has resisted. The Kurdish administration in the northeast agreed to integrate into the central government by year-end, though progress has been slow.

Adding to the challenges is Israel, which continues military strikes and maintains a presence in a UN-monitored buffer zone on the Golan Heights while seeking a demilitarized zone in southern Syria. Despite direct talks, Israeli forces carry out regular incursions. President Trump recently urged Israel to avoid destabilizing Syria and its new leadership.

In October, new parliamentary members were selected, but elections excluded regions outside government control, and Sharaa has yet to appoint 70 of the 210 seats.

Author: Ava Mitchell