Tennessee congressional election turns into unexpected challenge for blue wave

After Democrats strong performance in recent off-year elections, a special congressional race in Tennessee has emerged as a surprising measure of whether a nationwide Democratic surge is forming, potentially reshaping next years midterm contests. The election, scheduled for Tuesday, Dec. 2, to fill the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Mark Green, had previously received little attention. Now, the contest between Democrat Aftyn Behn, a 36-year-old progressive state representative, and Republican Matt Van Epps, a military veteran, is drawing national focus as Democrats hope for an unexpected House gain. Top Republicans, including former President Donald Trump, are investing heavily to prevent a loss.

Virginias Democratic gubernatorial candidate, former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, recently celebrated a historic victory on Nov. 4, 2025, becoming the first female governor of the state after defeating Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanbergers win in an off-year election was viewed as a potential national predictor for the 2026 midterms, highlighting Democratic strength among independent voters.

Tennessees 7th congressional district, long considered safely Republican, was drawn in 2022 to favor conservative candidates by dividing Democratic-leaning Nashville across three districts. Trump carried District 7 by 22 points over Kamala Harris in 2024. However, recent polling shows a much closer race: an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey indicates Van Epps leads Behn by just two points, 48% to 46%, within the margin of error. Even a narrow loss for Behn could signal broader challenges for Republicans in 2026.

It shows the Republican Party is facing serious difficulties, not only in this race but as we approach next years midterms, said Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg.

National polling reinforces the Democratic momentum, with a Nov. 1013 NPR/PBS News Marist Poll showing Democrats leading 55%-41% on the generic ballottheir strongest position since 2017. Democrats off-year victories in states like Virginia, New Jersey, and New York were widely interpreted as voter dissatisfaction with Trump and his handling of the economy. Trumps approval rating has subsequently dropped to 36%, according to a Nov. 28 Gallup poll.

In response to the competitive race, Trump-backed and conservative PACs have contributed millions to support Van Epps, while the Democratic House Majority PAC has invested over $1 million in advertising for Behn. Republican attacks on Behn focus on portraying her as an extreme progressive, highlighting past statements questioning law enforcement and traditional gender norms. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have actively campaigned for Van Epps, while Democrats, including former Vice President Kamala Harris, have mobilized to support Behn.

Republicans are concerned about voter turnout immediately after Thanksgiving. RNC spokeswoman Kiersten Pels emphasized their targeted efforts to maintain the district, stating confidence that Van Epps will retain the seat despite Behns campaign energy. On the Democratic side, DNC vice chair Jane Kleeb described the race as an uphill battle but highlighted the potential to convert independent and Republican voters if Democratic momentum continues.

Behn, a former community organizer and social worker, has embraced a progressive agenda, including ending the state grocery tax and reducing healthcare costs. Her campaign slogan, feed kids, fix roads, and fund hospitals, reflects a pragmatic focus on everyday issues. Behns outreach leverages social media and engages younger voters, while Van Epps emphasizes his military background, Trump endorsement, and commitment to the "America First" agenda. Polls show, however, that Trumps approval is underwater in the district, with 49% disapproving.

Election analysts predict Behn may overperform expectations without necessarily winning, which could provide Democrats momentum heading into 2026. A 10-point national swing toward Democrats could flip the House and make Senate gains more achievable, altering the current 53-47 Republican advantage.

This competitive Tennessee race confirms Republicans are now on defense while Democrats play offense, Rosenberg said. It increases the likelihood of a House flip and a competitive Senate next year.

Author: Sophia Brooks